by (in alphabetical order) John Garrett Clawson, Cassie Davis, Reynaldo De La Garza, Katie Floyd , Sarah Pollock
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Because universal ESAs resemble vouchers, evidence on the fiscal impacts of voucher programs can help policymakers to anticipate the fiscal impacts of ESAs. A review of the fiscal impact of vouchers is forthcoming on a separate Wiki page.
Eligibility Standards, Participation Rates, and State Expenditure Estimates
Approximately 6.6 percent of school-aged children in Texas currently attend some kind of private school. However, this figure varies substantially depending on the metro area examined. While San Antonio has a private school enrollment rate similar to that of the state at large, nearly one in ten (9.5 percent) of children in Dallas attend a private school. Calculating the total student population in private schools is difficult as the Texas Education agency TEA does not actively track private school enrollment and relies on private schools to report accurate numbers (McDonald 2015).
Eligibility Standards, Participation Rates, and State Expenditure Estimates
During the 2014-15 school year, 5,232,065 students were enrolled in Texas public schools (TEA 2016). Using McDonald’s 6.6% figure, we estimate that 345,316 students attend private schools statewide. The ___ estimates that between 150,034 and 200,045 Texas students were homeschooled in 2013. In the calculations below, the average of these two numbers is utilized, a figure equal to 175,040 (Coalition for Responsible Home Education 2013).
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This can exacerbate the expenses associated with the program as the state must increasingly bear new education costs associated with children whose parents never had any intention of sending them to public school in the first place. Today, taxpayers are not liable to pay for the private education of students electing to leave the public system, but an ESA program could compel the state to award them public funds as well. SB 1178 stipulated that participants in the hypothetical ESA program would have to be enrolled in a public school the year prior or eligible to enter first grade for the first time in the upcoming school year. Initially, this would suppress the number of existing private school parents eligible for state dollars. However, this “safeguard” would only be temporary in nature as all students in Texas would have access to eligibility within 12 years of the law’s passage (as most students in the education system at that time would have entered first grade after implementation). In fact, all students could obtain eligibility two years after program implementation if all current private school students and homeschool students enrolled in public schools for one year then requested an ESA to return to his/her non-public education.
A variety of scenarios can be analyzed to better understand the fiscal impacts of different eligibility requirements and take-up rates. While levels of per-student spending vary between Independent School Districts, the estimates below utilize the anticipated 2017 state average of $10,371 (CPPP 2016). The state would expect to save 20% of this total for each public school student that left the system with an ESA (given that they do not participate in special education, in which case the state saves no money). However, the state would lose money for every student that participated that would have never enrolled in a public school without the presence of the program. The figures below are produced by multiplying the number of non-public school students by $8,296 (80 percent of the average per-student expenditure). The estimates assume that the hypothetical Texas program is similar to the Nevada program and has no enrollment cap.
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Sandra Chereb. “Nevada Supreme Court Strikes Down School Choice Funding Method.” Las Vegas Review-Journal. September 29, 2016.
S.B. 1178, Texas 84th Cong. (2015).
S.B. 1363 Fiscal Note, Arizona 51st Cong. Schimpp, Steve. (2013).
S.B. 2695, Mississippi 114th Cong. (2015).
S.B. 302, Nevada 302nd Cong. (2015).
S.B. 431, Tennessee 431st Cong. (2015).
S.N. 850, Florida 116th Cong. (2014).
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